Recent missile launches by Iran have raised concerns regarding the potential range of its missile capabilities, particularly in relation to Europe. Last Friday, two missiles were aimed at the US-UK military base located in Diego Garcia, situated in the Indian Ocean. According to UK Defence Secretary John Healey, one missile failed while the other was intercepted.
Diego Garcia is approximately 4,000 kilometers (2,500 miles) from Iran, and this incident has sparked fears that Iran’s missile technology could extend its reach to major European cities, including London.
Evaluating the Iranian Missile Threat
While there are ongoing uncertainties regarding the actual capabilities of Iranian missiles to strike distant targets, it is noteworthy that the missile which failed last week managed to travel around 3,000 kilometers from its launch site. This raises questions about the seriousness of the threat posed by Iran.
Monitoring Missile Trajectories
The United States and the United Kingdom were likely aware of Iran’s missile activities aimed at Diego Garcia. The US Space Force has the capability to detect missile launches from Iran, utilizing advanced satellite systems and ground-based radar installations, including those at RAF Fylingdales in the UK. These systems can track missiles from launch to their intended targets.
Iran’s Missile Capabilities: A Closer Look
Despite Iran’s claims of limiting its missile range to 2,000 kilometers, Israeli intelligence suggests that Iranian missiles may actually possess a range of up to 4,000 kilometers. This would not only encompass Diego Garcia but also a significant portion of mainland Europe.
Iran is known to have a stockpile of short-range ballistic missiles with a maximum range of 3,000 kilometers, which have been frequently deployed against Israel and neighboring Gulf states in recent weeks. Prior to the current conflict, it was estimated that Iran had over 2,000 short-range ballistic missiles in its arsenal.
The status of Iran’s intermediate-range ballistic missile program, which is believed to have a range between 3,000 and 5,500 kilometers, remains less clear. Sidharth Kaushal, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, noted that there has been a long-standing understanding of Iran’s development of intermediate-range missiles.
Potential Missile Types Used
It remains uncertain what specific types of missiles were launched at Diego Garcia. Kaushal speculated that they could have been variants of the Khorramshah missile, which is based on a North Korean design and has a range exceeding 2,000 kilometers, capable of carrying a 1.5-ton warhead. He indicated that using a lighter warhead could potentially double the missile’s range, although this would likely limit the damage inflicted on the base.
Additionally, there is a possibility that Iran has been modifying rockets from its space program, as evidenced by its successful satellite launches. However, it is unlikely that Iran possesses a substantial number of intermediate or long-range ballistic missiles, especially after previous US and Israeli strikes aimed at dismantling its missile capabilities.
Is London Within Reach?
In the event that Iran decides to target Europe, there are existing defense measures in place to mitigate such threats. The US has established ballistic missile defense systems in Poland and Romania, part of NATO’s air defense strategy. These Aegis Ashore systems utilize interceptor missiles similar to those employed by the US Navy to neutralize Iranian ballistic missiles.
In contrast, the UK has limited ballistic missile defenses, a shortcoming acknowledged in the government’s recent Strategic Defence Review. However, experts suggest that the immediate threat to London remains low.
Expert Opinions on Missile Accuracy
Kaushal remarked that while it is theoretically possible for an Iranian missile to reach London, the practical implications are less concerning. He stated, „Missile range is an elastic thing – in that if you put a lighter warhead on a missile, you can extend its range.“ He emphasized that even if Iran could reach the UK, the missiles would likely be few in number and would have to navigate through well-defended airspace, resulting in significant inaccuracies at long distances.
Decker Eveleth, a research analyst at the CNA Corporation, echoed this sentiment, noting the complexities involved in missile design as range increases. He explained that longer travel distances lead to compounded errors in guidance systems, ultimately reducing accuracy. While acknowledging that a missile could theoretically reach London, he concluded that the risk level is relatively low.
Justin Crump, an intelligence expert at Sibylline, suggested that the attempted strike on Diego Garcia highlights not just the capabilities of Iranian missiles but also the resilience of Iranian forces. He stated, „Iran is still able to surprise the US and Israel after three weeks of bombing. Their forces may be degraded, but they are not on the ropes.“
In summary, while the potential for Iranian missiles to reach European targets exists, the actual threat level remains uncertain, with significant challenges in missile accuracy and defense capabilities in place.
Bildquelle: ai-generated-gemini
