The Green Party, led by Zack Polanski, is on the verge of a major breakthrough in London, as indicated by a recent survey conducted by More in Common.
The poll suggests that the Greens could secure at least two parliamentary seats in the capital, specifically in Hackney South and Shoreditch, as well as Leyton and Wanstead. Furthermore, the party is positioned as a strong contender in an additional 26 constituencies, with 10 of these races being particularly competitive, having been won by Labour in the last election with margins of less than 5 percent.
Luke Tryl, UK Director of More in Common, stated, “In an election held today, Labour could lose 13 of its London seats, with 15 more hanging on by a thread, as the Green Party is close behind and threatening to unseat some of Labour’s most prominent figures.”
As the May local elections approach, Labour is bracing for a potential loss of approximately 600 council seats in London, which would represent nearly half of its current holdings. The Greens recently achieved a surprising by-election victory against Reform UK in Kent, and they are expected to gain hundreds of council seats in the capital.
In light of these developments, Labour chair Anna Turley is calling on MPs from across the country to collaborate in minimizing losses in London while they are present in the capital for parliamentary duties. She emphasized the importance of the upcoming elections, stating, “Every London council seat is up for election in May.”
Tryl’s analysis indicates that Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy may face a tough challenge in retaining his Tottenham seat against the Greens, along with Communities Secretary Steve Reed in Streatham and Croydon North, and Dame Emily Thornberry in Islington South and Finsbury. Additionally, Health Secretary Wes Streeting is projected to lose his Ilford North seat to an independent candidate, leading to Labour potentially holding only 46 out of London’s 75 seats, a decrease from 59 in the last election.
Labour’s Potential Losses to Other Parties
The survey also predicts that Labour could lose seven seats to the Conservatives, including Cities of London and Westminster, Chelsea and Fulham, Chipping Barnet, Hendon, Finchley and Golders Green, Kensington and Bayswater, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Despite these challenges, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is expected to retain his Holborn and St Pancras seat. However, the party is projected to lose Bexleyheath and Crayford to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, as well as Dagenham and Rainham.
Tryl remarked, “In recent years, London has become Labour’s most important stronghold, but our latest model suggests that even here, the party could be under siege.”
He further noted that Labour might find itself defending against threats from multiple directions, as Reform UK is gaining traction in eastern outer London, while the Liberal Democrats, Conservatives, Greens, and Independents could significantly impact the political landscape.
Reform UK is anticipated to gain Hornchurch and Upminster from the Conservatives, as well as Romford, where MP Andrew Rosindell has switched allegiance from the Conservatives to Farage’s party. Meanwhile, Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey is expected to maintain his Kingston and Surbiton seat, along with retaining MPs in Carshalton and Wallington, Sutton and Cheam, Richmond Park, Twickenham, and Wimbledon.
Jeremy Corbyn is projected to keep his Islington North seat, while Labour may lose to an independent candidate in Bethnal Green and Stepney.
Comparative Poll Results and Future Projections
Despite the concerning findings for Labour, the outlook is slightly more favorable than More in Common’s January MRP poll, which indicated a potential loss of 17 seats in London.
On a national scale, the survey suggests that Reform UK could secure 324 seats, just shy of a majority in the House of Commons, although this figure represents a decrease of 57 seats compared to the January poll. Labour is projected to hold 101 seats, while the Conservatives are expected to have 81, the Liberal Democrats 62, the Scottish National Party (SNP) 26, the Greens 22, Plaid Cymru 5, and other parties 10.
Reform UK may also capture the seats of Chancellor Rachel Reeves (Leeds West and Pudsey) and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper (Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley), while the Greens could potentially defeat Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister Darren Jones (Bristol North West).
The MRP polls are derived from extensive surveys of various segments of society, with results extrapolated to reflect constituency outcomes. More in Common’s sample size for this poll was 15,482, with data collection conducted from March 1st to March 30th.
Bildquelle: Foto von Jay Alexander auf Unsplash
