The latest forecast from the Met Office indicates that London is expected to experience its highest temperature on April 9 around 16°C. This temperature will occur under partly sunny skies that are likely to transition into showers later in the day. Wind gusts reaching up to 31 mph will contribute to a wind chill effect, influencing traders to predict closely aligned temperature outcomes between 15°C and 18°C, with implied probabilities ranging from 27% to 18.5%.
This forecast comes on the heels of Storm Dave, which brought an unsettled Easter weekend characterized by rain and strong winds. Following this, a high-pressure ridge is expected to elevate temperatures, making it feel like 22°C on Wednesday. However, a frontal boundary will introduce cloudier and breezier conditions on Thursday, as suggested by the consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensemble models.
Moreover, the instability in the springtime boundary layer adds an element of unpredictability to the forecast. Daily model runs may alter the odds as the date approaches. Historically, the average maximum temperatures for April in similar weather patterns range from 13°C to 15°C.
